International Investing: The Diverging Fortunes of China and Japan
MSCI EAFE指数, 哪家公司追踪美国以外的发达市场, 到2023年提前15%, 而你.S. 美国股票&标准普尔500指数上涨24%.1 日本是世界上最热门的发达国家股票市场之一, 日经225指数在2023年上涨了28%, 在亚洲表现最好.2 另一方面, in China — which is still considered an emerging market — the benchmark CSI 300 Index lost more than 11% over the same period.3
Investing internationally provides growth opportunities that may be different than those in the United States, which could help boost returns and/or enhance diversification in your portfolio. 考虑风险可能会有所帮助, 经济力量, and government policies that might continue to impact stock prices in these two news-making Asian markets and elsewhere in the world.
两个经济体的故事
按国内生产总值（GDP）排名, 衡量一个国家商业活动的广义指标, China is the world’s second-largest economy after the United States.4 Japan fell from third place to fourth, behind Germany, at the end of 2023.5
2024年2月，日经指数超过了1989年的峰值.6 相反, 中国股市较2021年6月的峰值下跌逾40%, 然后在2月和3月略有上升.7
GDP growth in Japan has been lackluster; in fact, 2023年底，美国勉强避免了经济衰退.8 是什么推动了市场的优异表现? After battling deflation (or falling prices) for more than two decades, the emergence of inflation in Japan has been good for businesses. 日本企业一直在投入资金, 增长的利润, 并将其返还给股东, 哪些因素吸引了外国投资者. 日元贬值有助于降低日本产品在海外的价格.9 The Bank of Japan ended the era of negative interest rates when it raised short-term rates on March 19, 2024.10
中国的GDP增长放缓至5%左右.2% in 2023, as weaker consumption and 投资 cut into business activity. 中国的经济增长速度仍然快于大多数发达国家, 但它正在与长达数年的房地产危机作斗争.11 通货紧缩已经开始, while underemployment and youth unemployment have risen to high levels, 损害消费者信心.12 此外, a visible government crackdown on the private sector has rattled investors and scared away many foreign firms.13 2024年初, the Chinese government took steps to help stabilize the stock market that included boosting liquidity, 支援地产发展商, 并鼓励更多的银行贷款和购房.14
全球经济展望
The International Monetary Fund sees a path to a soft landing for the global economy, 预计稳定增长3%.2024年为1%，与2023年大致相同. Inflation, which has fallen rapidly in most regions, is expected to continue its descent.15
The downside risks to this hopeful outlook include fiscal challenges, 高负债水平, 以及高利率带来的挥之不去的经济压力. 地缘政治冲突导致的价格飙升, 供应中断, or more persistent underlying inflation could prevent central banks from loosening monetary policies. The possibility of further deterioration in China’s property sector is another cause for concern.16
一个充满机会的世界
It can be more complicated to perform due diligence and identify sound 投资s in unfamiliar and less transparent foreign markets, and there are potential risks that may be unique to a specific country. Mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a relatively simple way to invest in a variety of international stocks. International funds range from broad global funds that attempt to capture worldwide economic activity, 地区基金和其他专注于单一国家的基金. “前美国”一词.S.” or “ex US” typically means that the fund does not include domestic stocks, 而“全球”或“世界”基金可能包括美国和欧洲的投资组合.S. 国际股票.
一些基金仅限于发达国家, whereas others concentrate on nations with emerging (or developing) economies. The stocks of companies located in emerging nations might offer greater growth potential, but they are riskier and less liquid than those in more advanced economies. 对于任何国际股票基金, it’s important to understand the mix of countries represented by the underlying securities.
It may be tempting to increase your exposure to a booming foreign market. 然而, chasing performance might cause you to buy shares at high prices and suffer more severe losses when conditions shift. And if your long-term 投资 strategy includes international stocks, be prepared to hold tight — or take advantage of lower prices — during bouts of market volatility.
Diversification is a method used to help manage 投资 risk; it does not guarantee a profit or protect against 投资 loss. 所有股票的回报和本金价值, 共同基金, 及etf随市场情况的变化而波动. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Supply and demand for ETF shares may cause them to trade at a premium or a discount relative to the value of the underlying shares. Foreign securities carry additional risks that may result in greater share price volatility, including differences in financial reporting and currency exchange risk; these risks should be carefully managed with your goals and risk tolerance in mind. Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.
共同基金和etf按招股说明书出售. Please consider the 投资 objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. 招股说明书, which contains this and other information about the 投资 company, 可以从你的澳门威尼斯人专业人士那里获得吗. Be sure to read the prospectus carefully before deciding whether to invest.